August 2026 Global Market News

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United States

-August 7: Hiring stalled, and revisions mattered-

The July employment report showed that nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000, while the unemployment rate remained near historically low levels at 4.1%. Revisions to May and June reduced previously reported job gains by a combined 103,000. Labor-force participation fell to 61.4%, suggesting that the lower unemployment rate did not necessarily reflect stronger labor-market momentum. The report strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would need to balance persistent inflation against a labor market that was beginning to lose momentum.

-August 12: CPI cooled, but inflation remained elevated-

Consumer prices increased 0.1% in July after declining 0.4% in June. Headline CPI rose 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI increased 2.5% over the same period. Energy prices fell 1.5% during the month, but the energy index was still 14.7% higher than a year earlier. The report offered some relief for markets, but it did not provide enough evidence that inflation was moving quickly toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% objective.

-August 19: Fed minutes kept a rate hike on the table-

Minutes from the July 28–29 FOMC meeting confirmed that inflation remained a major concern. Several officials favored a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting, while the majority supported keeping the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The three dissenting voters preferred an immediate hike. The minutes reinforced the view that the Fed’s pause was not necessarily the beginning of an easing cycle. Instead, policy remained dependent on whether inflation continued to improve.

-August 26: PCE inflation stayed sticky-

The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 0.2% in July. Headline PCE inflation rose 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%. Personal income rose 0.4%, personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%, and real consumer spending was essentially flat. The data showed that consumers remained active, but the combination of slower real spending and persistent price pressures complicated the outlook for both growth and monetary policy.

-August 28: Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole message-

At the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that the 2% inflation objective remained firm. He argued that recent improvements in CPI and PCE data did not yet prove that underlying inflation was moving toward the target quickly enough. Warsh also indicated that the Fed would avoid committing to a fixed interest-rate path and would remain focused on incoming data. Markets responded by raising expectations for a possible September rate increase. The shift pushed short-term Treasury yields higher and added pressure to growth-oriented stocks.

-August 31: Stocks finished higher despite a late-month shock-

Renewed U.S.-Iran military tensions pushed oil prices higher and pressured stocks during the final trading session of the month. Even so, all three major U.S. indexes finished August with gains. The S&P 500 ended at 7,686.14, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,370.89, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 53,185.90.

Hong Kong

-August 3: HKEX launched China government bond futures-

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing launched its five-year China Government Bond Futures contract, the only China government bond futures product available in the offshore market. The contract is traded and cash-settled in RMB, giving international investors a new way to manage Chinese interest-rate and duration exposure through Hong Kong. The launch expanded Hong Kong’s offshore RMB toolkit alongside Bond Connect and Swap Connect. It also moved the city’s fixed-income strategy from policy discussion toward practical market infrastructure.

-August 20: Offshore RMB issuance broadened-

Shanghai Electric Global Capital listed a RMB1.5 billion, three-year green free-trade-zone bond in Hong Kong. The transaction was reported as the first offshore bond from a non-financial corporate issuer under the Shanghai free-trade-zone framework. The transaction highlighted Hong Kong’s continuing role as a bridge between mainland Chinese issuers and international capital.

Global Central Banks

-Policy was less dovish than equity markets suggested-

August was relatively quiet for major central-bank meetings, but inflation risks kept policymakers cautious. The Reserve Bank of Australia, Norges Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the People’s Bank of China maintained their policy settings, while the Bank of Korea raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%.

Japan’s currency remained another source of market stress. After rare joint U.S.-Japan intervention efforts helped support the yen early in the month, the currency later weakened again toward the ¥160-per-dollar level. That kept the possibility of additional intervention and further Bank of Japan tightening in focus.

Commodities and Fixed Income

-Oil remained the central geopolitical market variable-

WTI crude finished near $86 per barrel at the end of August, while Brent crude moved back above $90 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz returned. Energy stocks benefited from the move, but higher fuel prices also revived concerns about inflation and consumer purchasing power.

-Gold and silver regained momentum-

Gold rose approximately 9.7% in August, while silver advanced more than 15%. The rally reflected a combination of geopolitical risk, concern about long-term government borrowing, and renewed interest in so-called debasement assets. The U.S. Dollar Index declined roughly 0.5% during the month.

-Bond yields remained a major headwind-

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield finished near 4.75%, while the 30-year yield reached approximately 5.34% during the month. Treasury’s expanded long-term buyback program provided temporary relief, but concerns about fiscal deficits, debt supply, inflation, and AI-related corporate borrowing continued to pressure the long end of the yield curve.

Others

-The AI trade returned, but leadership became more selective-

August reversed much of July’s technology selloff. Software companies and businesses demonstrating measurable productivity gains or AI-related revenue growth performed particularly well, while investors became more selective within semiconductors and data-center infrastructure. Asia also rebounded unevenly, with South Korea and Taiwan benefiting from renewed interest in AI-linked technology, while Chinese equities faced weaker domestic-demand concerns.

The AI theme also became increasingly important to monetary policy. In his Jackson Hole remarks, Warsh described artificial intelligence as a potential new factor of production with implications for productivity, employment, capital investment, and inflation.

Looking Ahead

September will begin with a fresh test of the market’s rate outlook. The U.S. August employment report is scheduled for September 4, the August CPI report for September 11, and the next FOMC meeting for September 15–16.

The central question is whether weakening labor-market data will outweigh inflation that remains above target. August showed that stocks can continue rising even as bonds, oil, and currencies signal stress. The month ended positively, but it did not remove the major risks facing markets as autumn begins.

©2026 Ryan Financial Daily