March 2026 Global Market News

PDF Version

United States 🇺🇸

-Mar 6: The labor market finally lost some altitude-

The BLS said nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.4%. That did not amount to a hard-landing signal, but it did shift the March narrative away from “reacceleration” and toward a slower, less comfortable growth backdrop.

-Mar 11: CPI still said “cooling,” but not “finished-

February CPI rose 0.3% month over month and 2.4% over 12 months, while core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 2.5% year over year. Shelter remained the largest factor in the monthly gain. In isolation, that was a decent inflation print; in context, it was not soft enough to settle the policy debate.

-Mar 13: The growth-inflation mix got less comfortable-

BEA revised Q4 2025 real GDP growth down to a 0.7% annual rate from the 1.4% advance estimate, while January personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% and real PCE increased only 0.1%. The January PCE price index was up 2.8% from a year earlier and core PCE was up 3.1%. That combination looked less like a clean soft landing than a slower-growth, still-sticky-inflation mix.

-Mar 18: The Fed held—and widened the scenario set-

The FOMC kept the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, said inflation remained somewhat elevated, noted that job gains had remained low, and explicitly said the implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy were uncertain. One voter, Stephen Miran, dissented in favor of a 25 bp cut. The implementation decision also kept IORB at 3.65%, the standing repo rate at 3.75%, the ON RRP rate at 3.50%, and continued Treasury-bill purchases to maintain ample reserves.

-Mar 18: The Fed’s forecast still implied only a shallow easing path-

In the March SEP, the median 2026 projections for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation both rose to 2.7%, up from 2.4% and 2.5% respectively in December, while the median projected federal funds rate for end-2026 stayed at 3.4%. That suggests policymakers still saw only limited room to ease this year; Reuters characterized the updated path as consistent with a single cut in 2026. This interpretation is an inference from the SEP and the current target range.

-Mar 18: PPI reminded markets why the Fed could not sound relaxed-

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.7% in February and 3.4% from a year earlier, with goods prices up 1.1% and services up 0.5%. If CPI looked manageable, PPI said pipeline inflation risk was still very much alive.

Hong Kong 🇭🇰

-Mar 13: HKEX doubled down on listing competitiveness-

The exchange published a consultation paper proposing changes meant to broaden the diversity of companies eligible to list in Hong Kong, including optimising weighted voting rights requirements and improving the pathway for overseas listed issuers. March’s Hong Kong market story was not just about trading volumes; it was about making the listing framework more competitive.

-Mar 16: The IPO flywheel looked real, not theoretical-

HKEX’s Listing Committee Report said the exchange welcomed 119 new listings in 2025, up 68% from 2024, and considered 133 listing applications during the year. It also highlighted the TECH channel and confidential filing option for Specialist Technology and Biotech companies. In other words, Hong Kong entered March with a much stronger listing base than it had a year earlier.

-By early March: issuance momentum stayed strong-

HKEX said that, as of 6 March 2026, Hong Kong IPO issuance totaled US$11.6 billion year to date versus US$1.5 billion in the same period of 2025, accounting for 68% of Asia-Pacific IPO fundraising. Separate HKEX investor-relations data showed 2025 cash-market average daily turnover at HK$249.8 billion, up 90% from FY2024. That matters because it suggests March’s Hong Kong strength was being built on both fundraising momentum and secondary-market liquidity.

-The latest exchange data showed the market engine was still running hard-

HKEX’s Monthly Market Highlights showed February securities market turnover of HK$4.195 trillion and average daily turnover of HK$246.8 billion. Southbound Stock Connect average daily turnover was HK$104.1 billion, while Hang Seng TECH Index Futures averaged 192,247 contracts a day. Even after cooling from January, Hong Kong was still carrying substantial trading depth into March.

-Mar 19: HKMA kept the tone steady but cautious-

After the Fed held rates, the HKMA said Hong Kong’s monetary and financial markets had continued to operate in an orderly manner, while warning that the future path of U.S. rates remained uncertain and that Middle East tensions had increased uncertainty around oil prices and the U.S. inflation outlook. Hong Kong’s rate environment was still being shaped as much by external shocks as by domestic conditions.

Commodities

-Mar 11 & Mar 15: Oil moved from price story to emergency-policy story-

The IEA said member countries would make 400 million barrels of oil available to the market in response to disruptions from the Middle East conflict. In its 15 March update, it said stocks from Asia Oceania would start flowing immediately, while stocks from the Americas and Europe would start from the end of March, and it called the Middle East war the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

-The real macro problem was that higher oil came with lower growth expectations-

In its March Oil Market Report, the IEA said global oil supply was projected to plunge by 8 million barrels per day in March, with nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product exports disrupted by the near halt in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz. It also cut its 2026 oil-demand-growth forecast by 210,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. March’s commodity shock was not just inflationary; it was also growth-negative.

Others

-Mar 17: Australia stayed the hawkish outlier-

The RBA raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10%, arguing that inflation had picked up materially in the second half of 2025, that capacity pressures were greater than previously assessed, and that higher fuel prices from the Middle East conflict added upside inflation risk. The decision was close: five members voted to hike, while four preferred to hold at 3.85%.

-Mar 18–19: The rest of the major developed-market central banks mostly chose to wait-

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18. On March 19, the ECB kept its three key rates unchanged and said the Middle East war had made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. The same day, the Bank of England unanimously kept Bank Rate at 3.75%; its minutes said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz had almost ground to a halt, Brent had risen above $100 per barrel ahead of the meeting, and UK CPI inflation was now expected to be close to 3.5% in March.

-Japan stayed more normalization-leaning than easing-leaning-

BOJ communications continued to show a policy rate around 0.75%, and Board Member Hajime Takata said in late February that his initial concerns over overseas factors had abated as he considered the timing of another “gear shift” in policy. That kept Japan closer to the normalization camp than to the restart-easing camp. This last sentence is an inference.